Is It Safe to Invest in Bitcoin in 2020? (Hodl Calc ...
Is It Safe to Invest in Bitcoin in 2020? (Hodl Calc ...
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Bitcoin - The Currency of the Internet
A community dedicated to Bitcoin, the currency of the Internet. Bitcoin is a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital money. Bitcoins are issued and managed without any central authority whatsoever: there is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. You might be interested in Bitcoin if you like cryptography, distributed peer-to-peer systems, or economics. A large percentage of Bitcoin enthusiasts are libertarians, though people of all political philosophies are welcome.
Ethereum Classic is an open, decentralized, and permissionless public blockchain, that aims to fulfill the original promise of Ethereum, as a platform where smart contracts are free from third-party interference. ETC prioritizes trust-minimization, network security, and integrity. All network upgrades are non-contentious with the aim to fix critical issues or to add value with newly proposed features; never to create new tokens, or to bail out flawed smart contracts and their interest groups.
“Oy vey is it hot! I should just head back to the desert am I right? Anyways I have an investment lined up bubby. Have u heard of bitcoin? A close associate of mine Jon mcafee says 1 coin will be worth a mil in a year. So I say we start u out w/ a 10k initial Investment & then play it by ear.”
Should I invest in Bitcoins ? A friend of mine believes they are about to spike in value.
Hi. A friend of mine and I were talking today and he is considering investing in Bitcoins as he believes they are about to substantially increase in value. He explained that mining bitcoins was going to experience a "difficulty hike" next year. The last time this happened Bitcoins shot up in value from about £20 to nearly £273 He believes next years Mining fix will create a similar spike. I know very little about Bitcoins. I am unsure how much my friend knows. His argument makes it sound like a very good deal, But If it's that easy I find it hard to believe it's possible. He explained that other people were predicting a drop, and we discussed Long term short term issues etc. Is was he is saying basically correct, would Bitcoins be a great short term ( 2 - 5 years ) investment ? What are the risks ? Does anyone have any opinions, thoughts, advice etc ? Many thanks! EDIT: I just read your "myths" section. I think I understand more about Bitcoins, thank you. His proposed investment seems to make sense if one believes Bitcoin will not fall dramatically in value over the next 5 years. I'm not sure why he predicts a difficulty hike, surely that would require a surge in numbers mining, is there a metric that predicts this ? The main concern seems to be complete implosion whereby the entire currency becomes redundant over night, I can see a few reasons why that might happen... I guess that's risk reward. I can probably afford to lose an investment of £1000 overnight. Would you recommend investing in Bitcoins ?
Eth 2.0 vs Polkadot and other musings by a fundamental investor
Spent about two hours on this post and I decided it would help the community if I made it more visible. Comment was made as a response to this
I’m trying to avoid falling into a maximalist mindset over time. This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech. Can someone help me see the downsides of diversifying into DOTs? I know Polkadot is more centralized, VC backed, and generally against our ethos here. On chain governance might introduce some unknown risks. What else am I missing? I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
What else am I missing?
The upsides. Most of the guys responding to you here are full Eth maxis who drank the Parity is bad koolaid. They are married to their investment and basically emotional / tribal in an area where you should have a cool head. Sure, you might get more upvotes on Reddit if you do and say what the crowd wants, but do you want upvotes and fleeting validation or do you want returns on your investment? Do you want to be these guys or do you want to be the shareholder making bank off of those guys? Disclaimer: I'm both an Eth whale and a Dot whale, and have been in crypto for close to a decade now. I originally bought ether sub $10 after researching it for at least a thousand hours. Rode to $1500 and down to $60. Iron hands - my intent has always been to reconsider my Eth position after proof of stake is out. I invested in the 2017 Dot public sale with the plan of flipping profits back to Eth but keeping Dots looks like the right short and long term play now. I am not a trader, I just take a deep tech dive every couple of years and invest in fundamentals. Now as for your concerns:
I know Polkadot is more centralized
The sad truth is that the market doesn't really care about this. At all. There is no real statistic to show at what point a coin is "decentralized" or "too centralized". For example, bitcoin has been completely taken over by Chinese mining farms for about five years now. Last I checked, they control above 85% of the hashing power, they just spread it among different mining pools to make it look decentralized. They have had the ability to fake or block transactions for all this time but it has never been in their best interest to do so: messing with bitcoin in that way would crash its price, therefore their bitcoin holdings, their mining equipment, and their company stock (some of them worth billions) would evaporate. So they won't do it due to economics, but not because they can't. That is the major point I want to get across; originally Bitcoin couldn't be messed with because it was decentralized, but now Bitcoin is centralized but it's still not messed with due to economics. It is basically ChinaCoin at this point, but the market doesn't care, and it still enjoys over 50% of the total crypto market cap. So how does this relate to Polkadot? Well fortunately most chains - Ethereum included - are working towards proof of stake. This is obviously better for the environment, but it also has a massive benefit for token holders. If a hostile party wanted to take over a proof of stake chain they'd have to buy up a massive share of the network. The moment they force through a malicious transaction a proof of stake blockchain has the option to fork them off. It would be messy for a few days, but by the end of the week the hostile party would have a large amount of now worthless tokens, and the proof of stake community would have moved on to a version of the blockchain where the hostile party's tokens have been slashed to zero. So not only does the market not care about centralization (Bitcoin example), but proof of stake makes token holders even safer. That being said, Polkadot's "centralization" is not that far off to Ethereum. The Web3 foundation kept 30% of the Dots while the Ethereum Foundation kept 17%. There are whales in Polkadot but Ethereum has them too - 40% of all genesis Ether went to 100 wallets, and many suspect that the original Ethereum ICO was sybiled to make it look more popular and decentralized than it really was. But you don't really care about that do you? Neither do I. Whales are a fact of life.
VCs are part of the crypto game now. There is no way to get rid of them, and there is no real reason why you should want to get rid of them. They put their capital at risk (same as you and me) and seek returns on their investment (same as you and me). They are both in Polkadot and Ethereum, and have been for years now. I have no issue with them as long as they don't play around with insider information, but that is another topic. To be honest, I would be worried if VCs did not endorse chains I'm researching, but maybe that's because my investing style isn't chasing hype and buying SUSHI style tokens from anonymous (at the time) developers. That's just playing hot potato. But hey, some people are good at that. As to the amount of wallets that participated in the Polkadot ICO: a little known fact is that more individual wallets participated in Polkadot's ICO than Ethereum's, even though Polkadot never marketed their ICO rounds due to regulatory reasons.
generally against our ethos here
Kool aid. Some guy that works(ed?) at Parity (who employs what, 200+ people?) correctly said that Ethereum is losing its tech lead and that offended the Ethereum hivemind. Oh no. So controversial. I'm so personally hurt by that. Some guy that has been working for free on Ethereum basically forever correctly said that Polkadot is taking the blockchain tech crown. Do we A) Reflect on why he said that? or B) Rally the mob to chase him off?
Also Parity locked their funds (and about 500+ other wallets not owned by them) and proposed a solution to recover them. When the community voted no they backed off and did not fork the chain, even if they had the influence to do so. For some reason this subreddit hates them for that, even if Parity did the 100% moral thing to do. Remember, 500+ other teams or people had their funds locked, so Parity was morally bound to try its best to recover them. Its just lame drama to be honest. Nothing to do with ethos, everything to do with emotional tribalism. Now for the missing upsides (I'll also respond to random fragments scattered in the thread):
This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech.
A good quick intro to Eth's tech vs Polkadot's tech can be found on this thread, especially this reply. That thread is basically mandatory reading if you care about your investment. Eth 2.0's features will not really kick in for end users until about 2023. That means every dapp (except DeFI, where the fees make sense due to returns and is leading the fee market) who built on Eth's layer 1 are dead for three years. Remember the trading card games... Gods Unchained? How many players do you think are going to buy and sell cards when the transaction fee is worth more than the cards? All that development is now practically worthless until it can migrate to its own shard. This story repeats for hundreds of other dapp teams who's projects are now priced out for three years. So now they either have to migrate to a one of the many unpopulated L2 options (which have their own list of problems and risks, but that's another topic) or they look for another platform, preferably one interoperable with Ethereum. Hence Polkadot's massive growth in developer activity. If you check out https://polkaproject.com/ you'll see 205 projects listed at the time of this post. About a week ago they had 202 listed. That means about one team migrated from another tech stack to build on Polkadot every two days, and trust me, many more will come in when parachains are finally activated, and it will be a complete no brainer when Polkadot 2.0 is released. Another huge upside for Polkadot is the Initial Parachain Offerings. Polkadot's version of ICOs. The biggest difference is that you can vote for parachains using your Dots to bind them to the relay chain, and you get some of the parachain's tokens in exchange. After a certain amount of time you get your Dots back. The tokenomics here are impressive: Dots are locked (reduced supply) instead of sold (sell pressure) and you still earn your staking rewards. There's no risk of scammers running away with your Ether and the governance mechanism allows for the community to defund incompetent devs who did not deliver what was promised.
Wouldn’t an ETH shard on Polkadot gain a bunch of scaling benefits that we won’t see natively for a couple years?
Yes. That is correct. Both Edgeware and Moonbeam are EVM compatible. And if the original dapp teams don't migrate their projects someone else will fork them, exactly like SUSHI did to Uniswap, and how Acala is doing to MakerDao.
Although realistically Ethereum has a 5 yr headstart and devs haven't slowed down at all
Just because it's "EVM Compatible" doesn't mean you can just plug Ethereum into Polkadot or vica versa, it just means they both understand Ethereum bytecode and you can potentially copy/paste contracts from Ethereum to Polkadot, but you'd still need to add a "bridge" between the 2 chains, so it adds additional complexity and extra steps compared to using any of the existing L2 scaling solutions
That only applies of you are thinking from an Eth maximalist perspective. But if you think from Polkadot's side, why would you need to use the bridge back to Ethereum at all? Everything will be seamless, cheaper, and quicker once the ecosystem starts to flourish.
I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
They are competitors. Both have their strategies, and both have their strengths (tech vs time on the market) but they are clearly competing in my eyes. Which is a good thing, Apple and Samsung competing in the cell phone market just leads to more innovation for consumers. You can still invest in both if you like. Edit - link to post and the rest of the conversation: https://www.reddit.com/ethfinance/comments/iooew6/daily_general_discussion_september_8_2020/g4h5yyq/ Edit 2 - one day later PolkaProject count is 210. Devs are getting the hint :)
I sat thru an hour plus long video expecting to get some new ticker symbols for Paul's secret portfolio. He said in his email that he would provide "an opportunity to get the names for the ticker symbols". I should've read that closer as that means he was not going to provide them without a catch. This is a subscription that Paul charges $5k for. While I am a subscriber to his "Profits Unlimited", and have been satisfied with the results so far, I couldn’t afford the subscription if I wanted to. I took notes on the video and tried to get as much detail as I could (which is tough because he doesn't allow you to rewind or navigate the video in the interface he shows it on). I did research and think I found a couple, but I was hoping you guys confirm and potentially help identify any of these stocks that he personally invests in. I tried to type up what I saw from some of these stocks… Graphene stocks...
Graphene can filter ocean water in a single use, stop rust with graphene infused paint, and can detect cancer in the human body. He mentions gains by G6, Talga Resources, and Tunghsu Optoelectronic (so it can be assumed it's not one of these). Paul predicts Graphene industry to be 13x it's size by 2027. The company he mentions is developing a graphene-based powder that can strengthen any substance. they are a mining company based in Australia. They are also developing a new graphene-powered battery which could charge a phone in 1-2 minutes and electric vehicles in 5. After researching, I believe this is FGPHF. Let me know if you think different.
An offshoot of one of the largest industrial firms in Canada. Canada’s federal government is investing in it. A “tiny” company now that commissioned it’s first large-scale production facility with a production line that is 100% automated. This one I'm not sure of.
Blockchain stock. Soared 26,000% just for "adding blockchain to it’s name” and Paul thinks it will keep growing. I assume he is referring to the bitcoin boom in 2017. Paul states he thinks Bitcoin will hit $1mil in his lifetime. Not much detail here. Quick google search shows: Riot Blockchain, Hive Blockchain, and Long Blockchain Corp. One of these maybe?
This stock is one of the leading crypto miners in the world and the company’s revenues grew 66% last year. Not much info here.
Global energy storage market…
13x growth by 2030. Paul likes an energy storage firm that is developing a new type of battery that can last 20-25 years minimum. Flow battery company with a current value of about $30 million. They’ve done a 180 and are putting everything into a niche corner of the battery market. Completed their first full battery system 2 years ago. Company plans to provide batteries for telecom towers and is expanding into China, New Zealand, and Australia.
Company based out of France. A renewable powerhouse that owns over 100 power plants. Completed 7 renewable power plants last year and have another 10 in the works. Recently bought out another company operating 95 power plants and are expanding into Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, South Africa. Company has goal to increase energy output by 570% by 2023. I'm not sure about either of these companies.
Biotech….Paul extremely bullish stating this could eleminate cancer, diabetes and other diseases in this decade. A French biopharmaceutical company with 8 cancer-killing drugs in its pipeline. Is able to take T-cells (white blood cells) and transform them into cancer killers. In a study, 30 patients with lymphoblastic leukemia were given this treatment. Within weeks, 27 of them were in remission. This company partnered with Pfizer. Worth under $1 billion and generates less than $50 billion in revenue. If one of the eight drugs in it’s pipeline reaches the commercialization phase, it will receive up to $2.8 billion from it’s partners. I believe this is Cellectis (CLLS).
A leader in the use of psychoactive drugs for medical purposes. Wants to design drugs for international use. Recently brought in Canada’s top depression expert as CEO. One of it’s directors is a former law enforcement officer with 35 years experience in drug trafficking. I believe this is Champignon (SHRMF).
SPAC (Special-Purpose Acquisition Company)
Innovation on how companies go public. Monopolizing one of the fastest-growing entertainment markets in the world. Currently holds 60% market share. (Could soar 30k+ percent). Not sure, perhaps PSTH?
Another SPAC. A "pure play on American Infrastructure" with 90% recurring business. Again, not much information so I'm not sure on these ones.
Please let me know if you are able to find anything out and if you have opinions on any of the stocks, feel free to share em! Tldr: I got clues on 10 stocks from an expensive subscription service I can’t afford. Any help identifying the stocks 1-10 above is much appreciated!
I built a decentralized legal-binding smart contract system. I need peer reviewers and whitepaper proof readers. Help greatly appreciated!
I posted this on /cryptotechnology . It attracted quite a bit of upvotes but not many potential contributors. Someone mentioned I should try this sub. I read the rules and it seems to fit within them. Hope this kind of post is alright here... EDIT: My mother language is french (I'm from Montreal/Canada). Please excuse any blatant grammatical errors. TLDR: I built a decentralized legal-binding smart contract system. I need peer reviewers and whitepaper proof readers. If you're interested, send me an email to discuss: [email protected] . Thanks in advance! Hi guys, For the last few years, I've been working on a decentralized legal-binding contract system. Basically, I created a PoW blockchain software that can receive a hash as an address, and another hash as a bucket, in each transaction. The address hash is used to tell a specific entity (application/contract/company/person, etc) that uses the blockchain that this transaction might be addressed to them. The bucket hash simply tells the nodes which hashtree of files they need to download in order to execute that contract. The buckets are shared within the network of nodes. Someone could, for example, write a contract with a series of nodes in order to host their data for them. Buckets can hold any kind of data, and can be of any size... including encrypted data. The blockchain's blocks are chained together using a mining system similar to bitcoin (hashcash algorithm). Each block contains transactions. The requested difficulty increases when the amount of transactions in a block increases, linearly. Then, when a block is mined properly, another smaller mining effort is requested to link the block to the network's head block. To replace a block, you need to create another block with more transactions than the amount that were transacted in and after the mined block. I expect current payment processors to begin accepting transactions and mine them for their customers and make money with fees, in parallel. Using such a mechanism, miners will need to have a lot of bandwidth available in order to keep downloading the blocks of other miners, just like the current payment processors. The contracts is code written in our custom programming language. Their code is pushed using a transaction, and hosted in buckets. Like you can see, the contract's data are off-chain, only its bucket hash is on-chain. The contract can be used to listen to events that occurs on the blockchain, in any buckets hosted by nodes or on any website that can be crawled and parsed in the contract. There is also an identity system and a vouching system...which enable the creation of soft-money (promise of future payment in hard money (our cryptocurrency) if a series of events arrive). The contracts can also be compiled to a legal-binding framework and be potentially be used in court. The contracts currently compile to english and french only. I also built a browser that contains a 3D viewport, using OpenGL. The browser contains a domain name system (DNS) in form of contracts. Anyone can buy a new domain by creating a transaction with a bucket that contains code to reserve a specific name. When a user request a domain name, it discovers the bucket that is attached to the domain, download that bucket and executes its scripts... which renders in the 3D viewport. When people interact with an application, the application can create contracts on behalf of the user and send them to the blockchain via a transaction. This enables normal users (non-developers) to interact with others using legal contracts, by using a GUI software. The hard money (cryptocurrency) is all pre-mined and will be sold to entities (people/company) that want to use the network. The hard money can be re-sold using the contract proposition system, for payment in cash or a bank transfer. The fiat funds will go to my company in order to create services that use this specific network of contracts. The goal is to use the funds to make the network grow and increase its demand in hard money. For now, we plan to create: A logistic and transportation company A delivery company A company that buy and sell real estate options A company that manage real estate A software development company A world-wide fiat money transfer company A payment processor company We chose these niche because our team has a lot of experience in these areas: we currently run companies in these fields. These niche also generate a lot of revenue and expenses, making the value of exchanges high. We expect this to drive volume in contracts, soft-money and hard-money exchanges. We also plan to use the funds to create a venture capital fund that invests in startups that wants to create contracts on our network to execute a specific service in a specific niche. I'm about to release the software open source very soon and begin executing our commercial activities on the network. Before launching, I'd like to open a discussion with the community regarding the details of how this software works and how it is explained in the whitepaper. If you'd like to read the whitepaper and open a discussion with me regarding how things work, please send me an email at [email protected] . If you have any comment, please comment below and Ill try to answer every question. Please note that before peer-reviewing the software and the whitepaper, I'd like to keep the specific details of the software private, but can discuss the general details. A release date will be given once my work has been peer reviewed. Thanks all in advance! P.S: This project is not a competition to bitcoin. My goal with this project is to enable companies to write contracts together, easily follow events that are executed in their contracts, understand what to expect from their partnership and what they need to give in order to receive their share of deals... and sell their contracts that they no longer need to other community members. Bitcoin already has a network of people that uses it. It has its own value. In fact, I plan to create contracts on our network to exchange value from our network for bitcoin and vice-versa. Same for any commodity and currency that currently exits in this world.
This material is published using the PII algorithm (point information impact) developed byzitramon1 Bitcoin is the lowest projection of the energy standard of the Higher Plans Erzanil and has nothing to do with money or cryptocurrencies. In its primary principle, bitcoin was intended to replace the modern banking credit monetary system to SES — the system of energy-informational-energy settlements / mutual settlements. Unfortunately, something went wrong. Money is a deadly virus that in the past destroyed the vast majority of ancient highly developed civilizations of our planet. Our civilization is no exception. The real Bitcoin, which was supposed to replace the existing bank credit monetary system with a system of energy settlements, as well as countless times in the past, was successfully destroyed. At the moment, bitcoin is deprived of its basic qualities. But, nevertheless, even in such a “truncated” form it is a powerful tool for terraforming the existing paradigm of the material world. At the level of society or the manifested physical world, represented by the third dimension, Bitcoin is the Standard and Measure from which any Countdown starts, and which are the basis of all Principles. Bitcoin itself is not only composed of pure energy, but also itself is energy in the very purest form. Our world is energy-informational. Everything that exists in this Universe and in this Dimension, as well as in many other dimensions, is the same Energy, but in its various states. And the state of Vibration of this energy, providing one or another level of its Density, just decides how it will manifest in our Reality. Matter is the compressed energy of slow vibration. In fact, bitcoin is the equivalent of energy, of which everything around us consists, including — and we are with you! The tragedy of the majority is that it does not understand the true purpose of Bitcoin — it is that Measure of everything and everything from which the entire Countdown comes. Not the price of Bitcoin should be modeled in dollars, gold or parrots — which is absolutely equivalent, but the value of all other attributes of society in bitcoins! The fractality of Bitcoin, as the foundation of any of the Worlds in which you are located, is reflected in its essence: at low-frequency levels, its projection represents two diverse anu combined in a single whole. It is this explosive-implosive particle that combines two opposites, and not some mythical atoms, quanta, neutrinos, and similar nonsense, is the basis of everything! Not Satoshi is the smallest part of bitcoin, but a double anu or argo! Remember the catch phrase that personifies the synonym of all the great Beginnings — “like the Argonauts in the old days” !? Try to guess the first time about its origins, located on a subconscious level. The mining process itself is nothing more than a manifestation of the lower projections of the energy standard of the higher planes of erzanil. The latter are “materialized” at the level of the third dimension or society in the form of bitcoins. During mining, the three main types of energy: electrical energy, the thermal energy of the video card / device itself and the energy that the programmer potentiated into the mining process itself, are converted into energy to fill the shells of bitcoins generated during the hashing process. This energy is stored in every bitcoin forever and will increase until the last block of the last bitcoin is fully mined. This energy, which is potentialized in bitcoin, which can neither be felt nor touched, is what you get with bitcoin and / or any part of it !!! And in the future, invest it / Bitcoin, exchange, buy, change, etc. etc. And it is this energy, in the future, that will serve as an evaluation standard for the value of all things. The smallest part of bitcoin is not Satoshi, but Argo or the double Anu. One argo is one in minus twenty-first degree part of bitcoin, and its energy potential corresponds to one in minus twenty-first degree of it, bitcoin, the maximum possible energy content. The entire energy potential of 21 million bitcoins determines the energy / energy-information capacity = energy / energy-information potential of the sephira Malkut of the Tree of life (Kabbalah) or the manifest physical world at the level of the third dimension. In other words, all people including you and me, to some extent consist of bitcoins and represent its integral and composition parts! More confirmation of this: https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020060606&tab=PCTBIBLIO Calculations / mutual settlements by bitcoins are possible not only at the level of society / third dimension, but also on higher planes — astral and mental, since bitcoin is not an equivalent but pure energy and this makes subsequent contacts with more advanced forms of life possible other systems! THAT’S WHAT IS THE ESSENCE OF BITCOIN! p.s. You can see how bitcoin is managed here: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/hy4x5y/is_bitcoin_real_bitcoin_today/
Two Prime, under the radar coin worth looking into.
Two Prime has released their FF1 MacroToken. "We show how this methodology can be applied as an Open Source application, in the vein of BTC and ETH, with all the creative and value generative potential that comes along with it. We leverage store of value functions of cryptocurrencies to arrive at value creation and accretion in the real economy by the intermediary of crypto exchanges on which we propose to provide protective measures. We detail treasury and reserve formation for the Open Source Finance Foundation, describe its relation to Two Prime and detail the emission of a new crypto-asset called the FF1 Token. We seek liquidity for the FF1 treasury within the secondary exchanges for the purpose of applying M4 in the real world, both in the private and public sector. We first apply this to the vertical of cryptocurrencies while outlining the genericity and stability of the model which we indeed to apply to esoteric financial needs (e.g. Smart City financing). In so doing, we extend the scope and control of applications that a system of digital units of value stored on decentralized, public ledgers can aim to advance. We call this approach Open Source Finance and the resulting coin class a MacroToken. MODERN MONETARY THEORY FRAMEWORKModern Monetary Theory states two interdependent phenomenological axioms and the banking system operates on a resulting syllogism:
Axiom 1: in discounted cash flow analysis (axiom 1a), 0 = 1 and (axiom 1b) 1 = 1..N.
Axiom 2: Government possesses, de facto, exclusive, and perpetual right of use of Axiom 1a for Ab-Initio Money(M0) monetary creation (FIAT M0).
Syllogism 3: The creation of AssetBackedM oney(M4) is a consequence of these two axioms. The banking system creates BACKED M4 with debt-backed cash flows of type 1b: 1 = N with N ⇡ 1. Add equity to these cash flows (e.g. project finance) and you create a return of type 1 = N with N 1 or axiom1b. FIAT currencies are therefore designed to be accretive with possibility of fluctuation.
In the past 10 years, the formation and emergence of BTC and ETH has verifiably falsified Axiom 2 . The phenomenon of crypto-currencies has created ab-initio global stores of value of type 1a. Cryptoc Currencies have displaced trust by means of government violence and associated, implied violence, with instead, open source distribution, cloud computing, objective mathematics, and the algorithmic integrity of blockchain ledgers. The first “killer app” of these open source ledgers areis stores of value, e.g. Bitcoin, or “open source money” as it was first characterized by its semi-anonymous creators. Leading crypto-currencies have proven themselves as viable global stores of value. They are regulated as Gold is in the United States. However, as type 1a units of value, they have tended towards high volatility inevitably leading to speculative market behavior and near 0 “real” asset-” backing or floor price , albeit with an aggregate value of $350bn ab-initio creation. We therefore advance Axiom 2 to Axiom 2’
Axiom 2’: (spoken “Two Prime” and the reason for the company name): ab-initio value creation (type 1a) and Macro Token (type 1b) can reside outside of national powers and central banking, e.g. in Open Source Finance.
At N < 1 we have dilutive debasement of fungible units of value, aka inflation. At 1, the new monies are therefore stable coins. At N > 1, these tokens are designed to grow with demand. Axiom Two Prime (or 2’) displaces government endorsed violence as our macro-socio organizing principle, with algorithmic objectivity and verifiable transparency. This occurs within the landscape we call Open Source Finance. THE TWO PRIME MODEL Two Prime refers to the financial management company managing the OSFF. FF1 refers to the Macro Token of the OSFF. The first stage is reserve and treasury formation, the second stage describes the mechanics of the public markets and the protective measures of the reserves and third stage is treasury liquidity via the Continuous Token Offering both in public and private markets. We will now describe these in more detail. MACRO INVESTMENT THESIS AND RATIONALE FOR FF1The FF1 MacroToken is a synthetic token based on the proven killer applications of Cryptoc-Currencies. After 110 years since the inception of the blockchain technology, the killer apps of crypto are already here and they are primarily all financial, not technical. The historical killers apps are:
Transnational Store of Value: Crypto-Currencies display a robust and transnational store-of-value function. Many crypto professionals today use the blockchain as their international bank. They maintain balances and pay with internet-based open source ledgers (a.k.a crypto). They find local FIAT liquidity on local exchanges. They speculate in crypto on global exchanges. The paradox of Axiom 1a is that in the absence of any backing the value of these stores of value is determined solely via exchanges, pure supply and demand mixed with sentiment. Their volatility is a side-effect of their lack of anchoring.
Capital Formation: Crypto-Currencies have proved very adept at capital formation both on flow and stock. The days of the ICO, where hundreds of millions of (crypto) dollars were raised seemingly overnight, need to be reborn as the Phænix from its ashes. However, the ICO faltered at capital allocation, wasting proceeds on tech no one needed and lavish parties, resulting in non accretion (N = 0.07)
Fractional Asset- Backing and Stablec Coins: Stable coins are tokens that are backed by existing assets. The first and best known example of a stable coins is Tether, which has a 60% backing ratio. We credit the crypto rally of 2017 to the conjunction of ICOs and stable coins. These instruments also have something to say to banking infrastructure. Witness the political backlash to Facebook’s Libra or the efforts of the Bank of China launching it’s own Central Bank Digital Currency. It should be noted that FIAT in the west is born as a fractionally asset- backed instrument (N = 0.07 or Basel III ratios) and matures, over time to (N > 1), as a super-backed instrument.
The FF1 MacroToken is a pot-pourri of these features, a synthetic token that mixes the best of breed practices of crypto mixing Store-of-Value, Capital Formation and Fractional Asset-Backing. MACRO INVESTMENT THESIS AND RATIONALE FOR FF1Treasury Generation: Ab-Initio Store of Value On the supply side, The OSFFTwo Prime has created is creating 100, 000, 000 FF1 Macro Tokens, which it keeps in treasury. They are pure stores of value for they have no assets backing them at birth. They are ab-initio instruments. The FF1 Macro Tokens are listed on public crypto exchanges. Two Prime manages operates market- making for these stores of value. Treasury Management: Supply- Side Tokenomics All FF1 are held in the Open Source Finance Foundation treasury. Crypto aAssets that enter into treasury are, at first, not traded. The FF1 supply will be offered upon sufficient demand. which Two Prime generates publicly and privately. The total supply will be finite in total units (100, 000, 000), but variable in its aggregate value for supply and demand will make the price move. The proceeds are the property of the OSFF (not Two Prime) and Two Prime places invests the liquid treasury (post FF1 liquidation) in crypto assets to protect against depreciation and create a macro-hedge reserve andor floor for the price. It should be noted that the price and the NAV of assets are, by design, not equal. In other words, the additional OSFF treasury is locked and can enter circulation if, and only if, there is a corresponding demand which is then placed invested in crypto assets with a target value N 1. This results in fractional asset- backing at first. EXCHANGES, CONTINUOUS TOKEN OFFERING, AND DEMAND- SIDE TOKENOMICSPublic Exchanges Two Prime will maintain listings for the FF1 Tokens on behalf of the OSFF. Two Prime maintains market- making operations in public crypto exchanges on behalf of the OSFF. Continuous Token Offering Two Prime works on creating new liquidity for the FF1 Macro Tokens to comply with the supply side constraints detailed above, namely that a token enters circulation when matched by demand. Two Prime does demand generation in public as above as well as private. This CTO results in something akin to a reverse-ICO, letting the reserves be set by public trading and then marketing to private purchasers investors (accredited US for example) after the public liquidity event. Demand generation is done via marketing to relevant audiences, e.g. as a macro way to HODL with exclusive private equity investments for crypto holders, and as a diversified and de-risked way to gain crypto exposure for FIAT holders (Sharpe ratio: 1.55, Beta to BTC: 0.75). PARTNER NETWORK, USE OF PROCEEDS, ACCRETION AND FLOOR PROTECTIONThough this mathematical approach allows for a broad and differentiated set of financial applications and outcomes, Two Prime founding Members will first apply this work to the realm of project finance within the Blockchain space via algorithmic balancing of an equity and debt based treasury consisting of real crypto assets and future cash flows. Proof of Value Mining in Partner Network Funds and projects can apply to the foundation for financing. This is the partner network and is akin to the way a network of miners secure the chain. Here a network of partners protects the value. The Foundation invests the proceeds in liquid crypto assets, interest bearing crypto assets and equity crypto assets via partner funds, creating a bridge to the real economy (crypto companies) in the last step. The foundation holds these (real economic) assets. M4 Asset Mix The funds raised are invested in public and private sector projects. We consider the following mix
Up To 30% cash and cash equivalents including crypto products (HODL)
Up To 30% debt and bonds. Including crypto products (Staking HODL)
Up To 30% deep tech including Fund of Funds
Up To 30% discretionary allocation including back to reserves.
This completes the M4 step and the flow of funds for the FF1 Token. It shows a feedback loop, for the Foundation can buy back it’s token, leading to an idiosyncratic tokenomics: the FF1 Token has a fixed (and potentially diminishing) SUPPLY alongside (potentially increasing) endogenous and exogenous DEMAND." This seems pretty interesting imo, thoughts?
Ok, A little backround. I know hardware and networking. I can build just about any config of a computer. I understand overclocking and undervolting. I can invest around 2,700 for initial investment. So do I buy hardware to build a GPU miner with at least 6 cards or more? Probably RX580 as they are cheap and I have one in my rig. More on that later. Or do I a Asic miner like this I understand a GPU miner is multiple coins and not Bitcoin, and Asic is nothing but Bitcoin. I've done the math on the Asic miner and the ROI in about 3 months with a net gain of about ~10,000 USD a year @ .13 cents per Watt. I've had a hard time finding a solid or semi way of calculating the earnings for a GPU miner. Not only because it is many coins or dedicated to one coin, but there our other variables involved. However I have more control of the hardware if it fails. I dipped my toe into mining with my own rig that has a RX580 fatboy and a AMD Phenom ii x4 955 black edition. I overclocked the GPU and undervolted the CPU to reduce heat since it was hitting 62 cel. The GPU gets 12.5 sol/s and the CPU was getting ~322 h/s. All this added up to ~170 watts and a net of .00218322 BTC/Month. This was all done using Cudo as it was easy to find and setup just to test. This was just a test to see how it would work. I wouldn't use Cudo to full scale as it is a pool and the transfer to a Wallet is pretty steep in relationship to earns. I understand that in a pool you get your share based upon how much of the "work" you did to get find block. So do I build or buy? With that much computation power do I need to join a pool? What software is best for pool or alone? I am comfortable with CLI as long as it's well documented, but would like a remote GUI. Also what is the best wallet with the best fees for transactions. Currently using uphold since I use Brave. I think I covered as much as I could, if you have any questions let me know. Any advice would be great. If I should post this else where let me know please or I could just cross post it. TIA. Be safe, stay safe! Edit: Words and BTC earning was WAY off then I first typed this.
Hi All. A couple of months ago I was approached by a woman in words with friends asking me if I knew about bitcoin and if I wanted to invest in bitcoin mining. Thinking straight away that this is a scam, I chose not to do it. I had heard of bitcoin mining but didn’t really know much about investing in it. Over the next few weeks I played several games in wwf against her while she occasionally asked if I was still interested in investing in the bitcoin mining company she works for - Imtrader.co. Eventually I committed to investing after searching the company to see if it was a scam, but not finding anything. She asked me to message her through google hangouts from there on, and would serve as my account manager. Initially I sent through US$450 and was told that after one month I could withdraw my profit, with the company taking 20% of it. After seeing the profit grow I invested a bit more and after one month my total investment was US$1220 with the company chipping in US$150 on top of that. I had also been told that I would earn US$50 for each person I referred which I chose not to do. My profit at the end of the month was 2.56 BTC. Once I was able to withdraw I was told that I would have to pay the 20% brokerage fee (~US$5796) before I got my profit, which was confirmed to me in an email. Having been annoyed that I wasn’t told this before, I spoke to the company’s live chat as well as their WhatsApp support number. Both people in their support were surprised that I hadn’t been informed of this but told me that I would have to pay the fee before the withdrawal process could proceed. Still frustrated by this I paid US$1469 of the fee and informed them I would pay the rest the next day. I sent through 0.43088 BTC, which was enough to cover the US$4326 remaining amount to the company’s wallet address. After about 12 hrs I got confirmation from the company that they had received the payment, however, they had only received 0.321199 BTC, and asked me to complete the payment so that I could make the withdrawal. Quite frustrated by this time I asked their support why they didn’t receive the full amount, with their response being that it was no ones fault but the price action of bitcoin being the cause. I searched the blockchain ledger to find out that they had received the full amount I sent. My account manager has since kept apologising to me and saying that they are working on my withdrawal process, but support is telling me that nothing can be done and if I don’t pay the full amount my money will go back into the mining pool. I have told them that I will not be sending anymore and have demanded that they return the amount I paid for the brokerage fee (knowing that im not getting anything back). After doing some further research on bitcoin scams, I now unfortunately, realise I have probably been scammed. I feel stupid going through with this. I was hesitant about it right from the start and should’ve followed my gut. I wanted to get a second opinion on this and find out if anyone else has heard of this company? Thanks. Tl;dr - I invested US$1220 in this bitcoin mining company called Imtrader.co. Wasn’t told that a brokerage fee needed to be paid for until I was ready to withdraw my profit (~2.56 BTC). I paid the fee (~US$5796) only to be sent a receipt showing that only part of the fee was paid for. I’ve realised I’ve probably been scammed but just wanted to get second thoughts on this.
Disclaimer: This is my editing, so there could be always some misunderstandings and exaggerations, plus many convos are from 'spec channel', so take it with a grain of salt, pls. -------------------------------------------------- 📷 Luigi Vigneri [IF]어제 오후 8:26 Giving the opportunity to everybody to set up/run nodes is one of IOTA's priority. A minimum amount of resources is obviously required to prevent easy attacks, but we are making sure that being active part of the IOTA network can be possible without crazy investments. we are building our solution in such a way that the protocol is fair and lightweight. 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:24 IOTA is not "free to use" but it's - fee-less you have tokens? you can send them around for free 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:25 you have no tokens? you have to pay to use the network 📷 lekanovic어제 오후 11:25 I think it is a smart way to avoid the spamming network problem 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:26 owning tokens is essentially like owning a share of the actual network and the throughput it can process 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:26 if you don't need all of that yourself, you can rent it out to people and earn money 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:27 mana = tokens * time since you own them simplified 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:27 the longer you hold your tokens and the more you have, the more mana you have but every now and then you have to move them to "realize" that mana 📷 lekanovic어제 오후 11:28 Is there any other project that is using a Mana solution to the network fee problem ? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:28 nah the problem with current protocol is that they are leader based 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:29 you need absolute consensus on who the current leaders are and what their influence in the network is that's how blockchains works 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:29 if two block producers produce 2 blocks at the same time, then you have to choose which one wins and where everybody attaches their next block to IOTA works differently and doesn't need to choose a single leader we therefore have a much bigger flexibility of designing our sybil protection mechanisms in a way, mana is also supposed to solve the problem of "rewarding" the infrastructure instead of the validators in blockchain only the miners get all the money running a node and even if it's one that is used by a lot of people will only cost you won't get anything back no fees, nothing the miners get it all 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:31 in IOTA, the node operators receive the mana which gives them a share of the network throughput 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:32 because in blockchain you need to decide whose txs become part of the blocks and it's not really based on networking protocols like AIMD 📷 lekanovic어제 오후 11:33 And the more Mana your node have, the more trust your node has and you have more to say in the FPC, is that correct? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:33 yeah a node that has processed a lot of txs of its users will have more mana than other nodes and therefore a bigger say in deciding conflicts its a direct measure of "trust" by its users 📷 lekanovic어제 오후 11:34 And choosing committee for dRNG would be done on L1 protocol level? Everything regarding Mana will be L1 level, right? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:35 Yeah Mana is layer1, but will also be used as weight in L2 solutions like smart contracts 📷 lekanovic어제 오후 11:35 And you are not dependant on using SC to implement this 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:35 No, you don't need smart contracts That's all the base layer 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:37 'Time' actually takes into account things like decay So it doesn't just increase forever It's close to "Demurrage" in monetary theory 📷 lekanovic어제 오후 11:36 For projects to be able to connect to Polkadot or Cosmos, you need to get the state of the ledger. Will it be possible to get the Tangle state? If this would be possible, then I think it would be SUPER good for IOTA 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:38 Yeah but polkadot is not connecting other dlts Just inhouse stuff 📷 Hyperware어제 오후 11:39 Is there still a cap on mana so that the rich don't get richer? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:39 Yes mana is capped 📷 TangleAccountant어제 오후 11:39 u/HansMoog [IF] My first thought is thatthe evolution of this renting system will lead to several big mana renting companies that pool together tons of token holders mana. That way businesses looking to rent mana just need to deal with a reliable mana renting company for years instead of a new individualevery couple of months (because life happens and you don't know if that individual will need to sell their IOTAs due to personal reasons). Any thoughts on this? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:41 u/TangleAccountantyes that is likely - but also not a bad thing - token holders will have a place to get their monthly payout and the companies that want to use the tangle without having tokens have a place to pay 📷 TangleAccountant어제 오후 11:42 Oh I completely agree.That's really cool. I'll take a stab at creating one of those companies in the US. 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:42 And everybody who wants to run a node themselves or has tokens and wants use the tangle for free can do so But "leachers" that would want to use the network for free won't be able to do so I mean ultimately there will always be "fees", as there is no "free lunch". You have a certain amount of resources that a network can process and you have a certain demand. And that will naturally result in fees based on supply / demand what you can do however is to build a system where the actual users of that system that legitimately want to use it can do so for free, just because they already "invest" enough by having tokens or running infrastructure they are already contributing to the well-being of the network through these two aspects alone it would be stupid to ask those guys for additional fees and mana essentially tries to be such a measure of honesty among the users 📷 Hyperware어제 오후 11:47 It's interesting from an investment perspective that having tokens/mana is like owning a portion of the network. 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:48 Yeah, you are owning a certain % of the throughput and whatever the price will ultimately be to execute on this network - you will earn proportionally but you have to keep in mind that we are trying to build the most efficient DLT that you could possibly ever build 📷 semibaron어제 오후 11:48 The whole mana (tokens) = share of network throuput sounds very much like EOS tbh Just that EOS uses DPoS 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:50 yeah i mean there is really not too many new things under the sun - you can just tweak a few things here and there, when it comes to distributing resources DPoS is simply not very nice from a centralization aspect 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:50 at least not the way EOS does it delegating weights is 1 thing but assuming that the weight will always be in a way that 21 "identities" run the whole network is bad in the current world you see a centralization of power but ultimately we want to build a future where the wealth is more evenly distributed and the same goes for voting power 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:52 blockchain needs leader selection it only works with such a centralizing component IOTA doesn't need that it's delusional to say that IOTA wouldn't have any such centralization but maybe we get better than just a handselected nodes📷 📷 Phantom3D어제 오후 11:52 How would this affect a regular hodler without a node. Should i keep my tokens elsewere to generate mana and put the tokens to use? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:53 you can do whatever you want with your mana just make an account at a node you regularly use and use it to build up a reputation with that node to be able to use your funds for free or run a node yourself or rent it out to companies if you just hodl 📷 semibaron어제 오후 11:54 Will there be a build-in function into the node software / wallet to delegate ("sell") my mana? 📷 Hans Moog [IF]어제 오후 11:55 u/semibaronnot from the start - that would happen on a 2nd layer ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 📷 dom어제 오후 9:49
suddenly be incentive to hold iota?
to generate Mana 📷 Hyperware오늘 오전 4:21 The only thing I can really do, is believe that the IF have smart answers and are still building the best solutions they can for the sake of the vision 📷 dom오늘 오전 4:43 100% - which is why we're spending so much effort to communicate it more clearly now we'll do an AMA on this topic very soon 📷 M [s2]오늘 오전 4:54 u/dom please accept my question for the AMA: will IOTA remain a permissionless system and if so, how? 📷 dom오늘 오전 4:57 of course it remains permissionless 📷 dom오늘 오전 5:20 what is permissioned about it? is ETH or Bitcoin permissioned because you have to pay a transaction fee in their native token? 📷 Gerrit오늘 오전 5:24 How did your industry partners think about the mana solution and the fact they need to hold the token to ensure network throughput? 📷 dom오늘 오전 5:26 u/Gerritconsidering how the infrastructure, legal and regulatory frameworks are improving around the adoption and usage of crypto-currencies within large companies, I really think that we are introducing this concept exactly at the right time. It should make enterprise partners comfortable in using the permissionless network without much of a hurdle.They can always launch their own network if they want to ... 📷 Gerrit오늘 오전 5:27 Launching their own network can’t be what you want 📷 dom오늘 오전 5:27 exactly but that is what's happening with Ethereum and all the other networks they don't hold Ether tokens either. 📷 Gerrit오늘 오전 5:32 Will be very exciting to see if ongoing regulation will „allow“ companies to invest and hold the tokens. With upcoming custody solutions that would be a fantastic play. 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 5:34 It's still possible to send transactions even without mana - mana is only used in times of congestion to give the people that have more mana more priority there will still be sharding to keep the network free most of the time 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 5:35 but without a protection mechanism, somebody could just spam a lot of bullshit and you could break the network(수정됨) you need some form of protection from this 📷 M [s2]오늘 오전 5:36 u/HansMoog [IF]so when I have 0 Mana, I can still send transactions? This is actually the point where it got strange... 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 5:37 yes you can unless the network is close to its processing capabilities / being attacked by spammers then the nodes will favor the mana holders 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 5:37 but having mana is not a requirement for many years to come currently even people having fpgas can't spam that many tps and we will also have sharding implemented by then 📷 M [s2]오늘 오전 5:39 Thank youu/HansMoog [IF] ! This is the actually important piece of info! 📷 Basha오늘 오전 5:38 ok, i thought it was communicated that you need at least 1 mana to process a transaction. from the blogpost: "... a node with 0 mana can issue no transactions." maybe they meant during the congestion, but if that's the case maybe you should add that 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 5:42 its under the point "Congestion control:" yeah this only applies to spam attacks network not overloaded = no mana needed 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 5:43 if congested => favor txs from people who have the most skin in the game but sharding will try to keep the network non-congested most of the time - but there might be short periods of time where an attacker might bring the network close to its limits and of course its going to take a while to add this, so we need a protection mechanism till sharding is supported(수정됨) 📷 Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 6:36 I don't have a particular problem with EOS or their amount of validators - the reason why I think blockchain is inferior has really nothing to do with the way you do sybil protection and with validators I mean "voting nodes" I mean even bitcoin has less mining pools and you could compare mining pools to dpos in some sense where people assign their weight (in that case hashing power) to the corresponding mining pools so EOS is definitely not less decentralized than any other tech but having more identities having weight in the decision process definitely makes it harder to corrupt a reasonable fraction of the system and makes it easier to shard so its desirable to have this property(수정됨) ------------------------------------------------- 📷 Antonio Nardella [IF]오늘 오전 3:36
READ THIS NOW: My life of SHOULD'VE, WOULD'VE, COULD'VE until I discovered Crypto.
Mostly all here are invested into Crypto. We all have our own reasons, methods, values of how we invest our money. One thing in common is we all have one main goal. That is to get as much money as possible out of this with the time, and money we can spare.
That's the dam truth##.
We are all here together, and since we are all here on our own will , I want to tell you why you should be proud to hold all your crypto. I'm 40 years old. At 18 after I graduated HS I had about $7800. $1400 from my graduation party, and $6400 selling my MTG collection on EBay. I also managed a small arcade for about $350 a week. Back to my MTG collection... I sold it because it changed. The designs on the new series looked too modern. The original designs were a work of art. Anyway, I seriously wanted to hold those magic cards but I kept telling myself... "I can get them back if I want. The price isn't going to move anytime soon. The market is in slight decline. Some of these have been the same price for 2 years now." I was right, the price of my two Lotus's stayed the same for 5 more years. Not budging . 12 years later after that , those same two cards value at over $60,000ea I believe. If I held untill a few years ago or now, I would've been able to do a quick sale at $400,000. Yes at a discount. The same goes for all the first edition garbage pail kids I had.
So, what did I do with all $7800##?
I told myself I want to invest it into Microsoft. But I talked myself out of it by saying "Some people told me the market was a risk, and I had to prepare myself to lose it all" So I didn't do it. I was close, but I didn't. I could've had OVER A MILLION! I instead used that money for a school. Business computer programming. It was a waste because 90% of what they taught me came natural. I was doing basic programming at 13 for fun. I regret not going with my initial FOMO on Microsoft , I regret listening to my own FUD with the MTG cards. 7 years later, I repeated the same mistake... I had about $15,000 in the bank. I wanted to invest $10,000 in apple after I read about the release of the iphone. Instead opted to do 5k over FUD I read. It was FUD about the risk since they never made phones, and alot of people were ridiculing their idea. Then I said to myself... "Fuck that, I don't want to do this. I could do so much more with this 5k" I instead used the 15k turbocharge my transam, add a racing transmission, tires, rims, new stero system, and I took a 2 week vacation ...GONE! I got what I wanted. Got laid a bunch of times, went to car shows. That could of been $500k by now. To top this off, I missed out on a quick $78,000 win at the racetrack because if my own FUD. Horses. I lost $200, and was left with only I $5 that night. I decided, "you know what, fuck it, I'm going to do a completely off the wall wild bet. I did a completely wild bet for $5. I picked all longshots in what they call a "Superfecta"(4 horses in that exact order 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th place prediction. 1 minute before the race started, I Cancelled the bet. I told myself ... "this is stupid, 99:1, 78:1, 56:1, 38:1 long shots coming out in this order? THATS INSANE...Why am I blowing 5 away? Fuck that, I instead put $5 on the 10:1 to win hopefully my to maybe get $50 back " Well. Guess what? The 3nd largest superfecta payout in history. No body won it! It came out in the original order I out it in that's to a series of freak disqualifications in the race. I hate myself for cancelling that. But hey, maybe that happened for a reason. Maybe I wouldn't have ended up living on another country for 2 years. Learning another language. You see So many times in my life I had the perfect opportunity, and I didn't take it. I let Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt make my Choices for me. Then came crypto currency. In late 2016, a client of mine told me he got rich off Bitcoin. He raved about it . He told me about ripple, ETH etc. I invested in his recommendation about XRP when it was $0.005. it FLEW UP from there. I took some of that massive gain and bought other things, and those FLEW. For someone like me, it was LOTS of money off my original $500. Sure this was a "lucky time" to get in but that's not the point I'm trying to make here. The point is that I finally did it! I didn't let FUD fuck with my head. I just did it. I cashed out already in late 2017. About 90% of what I gained. Payed off all my debt, and my truck, and had another $30k or so to put a down payment on a house. If I didn't just stick with my guns and let the FUD get to me, then I would still be in a whole bunch of debt. Especially with this whole lockdown bullshit. But now.... NOW ,I never again I will tell myself... "IF ONLY I DID THAT WHEN I HAD THE CHANCE" NOW I NEVER HAVE TO SAY THAT AGAIN! I DONT GIVE A SHIT IF IT TANKS ANOTHER 50% FROM HERE because it's all house money. I NOW NEVER HAVE TO SAY ... "IF ONLY I DID IT" NOW I DID! Crypto Currency is severely undervalued. Its manipulated down right now. This about this logic, how can something increasingly popular with more and more support by the day drop in price? Crypto isn't human. Bitcoin isnt getting fired over sexual harrassement, there isn't a corporate takeover. Its manipulation. I don't care if this shit takes 5 years to recover. I'm holding . I don't care if BTC dips to $1000. I'm holding till this MCAP tops 10 trillion. so if you love your crypto, hold that F#%KING SHIT! The lesson here is never let FUD make choices for you. Stick to your original beliefs. If there's a voice in the back of your head telling you "I want to do this", then Listen to that voice. That's you! Listen to yourself, not the new voice that intrudes after your choice.
This is my story of how I derped around during the last BTC bubble, made some dough, and saw my friend pile up a mountain of debt on himself, only to become a millionaire. I hope if you read it there is a moral somewhere, but I'm not so sure there is. (prices are approximate to dates, going back in my memory a bit) OCT 2011: (BTC $4) (preface) As an undergrad computer science major I mined a few coins in a cyber security class . It took about 2 months and I think it was around .89 BTC or something like that (Edit: OK so I probably didn't mine this much, but I had access to the computers in the graphics lab and during this time, and they were mining 24/7. We let them run for a while after the class before taking our share out). I think it was worth about $8 at the time. I thought this was really cool, but also remember at that time you couldn't do anything with it, especially where I lived. I just kind of forgot about it, got a new laptop sometime later, and eventually chucked that one with the coins on the hard drive... (it was just $8 and I had no way of spending it remember) oh well so much for those. Who knows how many coins were lost by these standards back in those days. I take in all the maths, graduate with marks, drink all the beer, laugh with friends, fun times. May 2015: (BTC $234) Fast forward.. I end up in Los Angeles, CA through another long set of tales. I live with aspiring actors and film makers grinding it out as waiters and bartenders. They are good mates and take me to parties on occasion where we meet all kinds of characters. I end up chatting with a guy (lets call him Bill) who's nuts about BTC. I explain to him that I know all about it, and he is ecstatic to find someone who understands what he is talking about. I haven't been paying much attention the past years, and he shows me how far its come in tech and price. I smack my forehead, knowing I tossed away 8/10ths of a coin (could have been beer money man). We become friends and talk about Bitcoin pretty regularly. I don't buy initially, but Bill is giving it all he's got, buying left and right with anything extra dollar he can scrape up. He believes in it. I get so worried that Bill is going to loose what he put in that I just buy a bit (.1BTC) so I will be invested enough to watch it, to know if Bill is up or down. You can guess what happens at this point. Up we go. Bill makes money, I make money. June 2016:(BTC $661) All is well. I am happy that Bill didn't lose his money and hoping he will take and re-invest his earnings in a more diversified portfolio. I'm worried about the ~$100 I made in earnings, like do I file this? (lol younger me) I meet with Bill for the first time in a while. I'm excited to share our gains. We both show our gains and cheers. He immediately tells me that he is looking at ways of taking out credit to buy more BTC.... WTF? I say. He quickly proceeds to tell me the banks turned him down, but he found out he can just buy BTC with credit cards... so he is filing 7 applications right now to see how many he can open to buy BTC... I think for a second. I do the rational thing. I try to talk him down, but no way. He's doing it. I don't know much about investment at this point, just math and percentages, but thats enough to make me beg him to not do it.... he doesn't listen. By my estimates Bill purchased a total of $30K worth of BTC with combined cash and credit on hand at (my best guess) an average price of $589 per BTC. I invest what I have to spare from savings to just keep up with the train wreck I am worried about happening to Bill. I think I have .2 BTC at this point just to keep up with his insane position August 2016: (BTC $576) The first dip comes, and Bill is facing credit card bills with interest rates that will kick in soon (he will not be able to make the minimum payments). We discuss is troubles at this point frequently. I suggest he should liquidate and close the cards. He disagrees, and liquidates only a position large enough to pay the minimums and give him a bit of cash. Not only that but he use the cash to secure short term loans at higher interest in order to re-invest to make up the losses. I once again beg him to re-consider, but no... this is his path. I once again invest more to keep up with it, so I can keep up with Bill and his well being. I purchase a good bit more and have .5 BTC November 2016: (BTC$758) I move to another city and mostly forget about my interactions with Bill. He messages me a few times about the price going back up and being bullish about it once again. I do the same song and dance of trying to warn him to close his cards and positions to get out while he can. Nope he's holding strong. Nothing to be done. I assume I can't do anything to help this situation. Once the price busts above $900/BTC even I can't say anything. I've made money, he's made bank. I feel happy for him, but once again concerned. I know he is running on margin and don't want him to get sucked in, but I also don't want to weigh in on such a big investment at this point. He texts me about the gains, I mostly just give the thumbs up back, knowing I can't back down at this point, but I don't want to be around him if it fails. Jun 2017: (BTC $3000) I have mostly lost touch with Bill because I live in another city. I never sold my BTC though, and I never forgot about him. Around Feb. 2017 I visited LA and saw Bill. I thanked him for making me the money that I held now in BTC. I asked him what he was doing with his stake. As always he was ready for the apocalypse to happen and for his BTC to be the only currency left somehow. He was holding stone cold. I wasn't persuading at this point, hell, I was holding myself. Dec 2017: (BTC $16000) While I thought I would never be swept up in the chaos that is BTC... I was. The amount of BTC I hadn't sold (.3BTC) was making even me feel like a genius. I had made so much money off just forgetting about something over months at a time. I often thought about Bill, but I didn't envy, in fact I really hoped he had paid off his credit card debts and was sitting on his fat profit. I watched BTC Youtube channels and debated if we would go to $100K or if this was it. I couldn't take the pressure and sold half my position @ around $16K/BTC 2018-2019 (BTC $20K -> $3.5K) (Epiloge) In early 2018 price went up to $20k before quickly falling back to 10K. Thankfully I sold the rest of my position on the way down at about the same point as on the way up ($16k). I bought a few back in 2019 but have never really put as much capital back in as I made. As for Bill, well I told you at the beginning. Bill is a millionaire. My best estimates based on my text with him is he cashed out @ around an average of $17k/BTC. Even after taxes, he ended up real nice. I don't know if he was in the run up in 2019 but I must assume he was. Looking at the market today, I'm not sure this story will repeat itself... maybe it will.
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